A post result analysis of the UK referendum : what the numbers didn’t accounted for

I am writing this post 3 hours after the result of UK referendum is out and UK voted to leave EU. The result was a shock for people and market all over the world. It was a shock for who voted to “remain” in the EU, even the “leave” campaigners were surprised as till Thursday and early hours of Friday when the counting started the “remain” were leading. So what happened after that?

The early poll numbers clearly favored “remain” campaign. The huge consequences in the economy, trade, and money after “Brexit” were brought to the center of discussion. On the other hand “leave” campaign was buttressed over the figure of fund outflow to EU, immigration and loss in employment. The numbers were very clear and most of the people, to be precise, the onlookers all over the world made their decision based on those numbers. And why not will they have an opinion? It is easy to make a decision when we have separate columns of data.

I am an Indian citizen and I myself was surprised with the results. I like being part of the world politics and happenings and so was following the entire referendum since it’s momentum started after the meeting in Brussels in Feb 2016. I followed several articles to make myself understand whether I would vote for “leave” or “remain” if I were a citizen of the UK. I myself made my decision in support of “remain” based on the numbers in media and I feel this was where I went wrong.img_20160624_151746.jpg

A human being, unlike a robot, does not make decisions based on data only, especially when that human being is attached to a thing in more ways than what some mere stats and figures suggest.Our opinion was moulded by stats and facts given in the media. I do not say that the facts were wrong but I would say “Brexit” occurred due to a lot of other factors that did not take the shape of stats and the citizens of UK did take into account such factors that the number or stats did not
account for. That is why our opinion was not reflected in the UK referendum results this morning. The next question which arises is – what factors were absent in the stats? What factors went unaccounted in the figures? My take on this is – It is the conscience and emotion of the citizens that went uncounted in the stats which actually were the prime mover behind the shift of “Bremain” to “Brexit”. The emotions related with the ideas of sovereignty, liberty, and control which the citizens of UK felt that they had lost it to an unelected, non-responsible European Union which they cannot hold responsible for any situation good or bad, was uncounted and that is the reason “Brexit” happened. The union which started as a multilateral economic tie grew so big that it started affecting every aspect of the life of the people inside it. Human beings are considerate most of the time & they try to adjust with such changes or interferences. The citizens of the UK were hopeful that the elected government of the UK will cut a good deal or the EU will reform itself in the response of the growing skepticism. But one can be considerate only for a good amount of time.

A citizen cannot take government inaction as ok. The negotiation that started since Thatcher government has now ended with a clear mandate of the citizens of the UK. The message is clear: “Every institution which cannot be held accountable for it’s act will be unseated by a new institution which is more responsible than the former”. The market responded with GBP plunge because it fears uncertainty, but it is the citizens who have a larger concern.